India’s wait for a first series win in South Africa but how does their defeat at Centurion affect their World Test Championship prospects?

India have qualified for both of the first two World Test Championship finals, but their path towards the 2025 final is not straightforward. Defeat at Centurion means they have won just one of their first three Tests in the current cycle, having previously won a two-Test series in the Caribbean 1-0 – the second Test of that series had a final day washout when India were in a strong position to force the win.

To make matters worse for India, they were also deducted two points for having a slow over rate in their Centurion defeat. It should be noted, however, that this WTC cycle has seen the ICC impose a draconian approach to stamping out slow over rates; England were deducted a whopping 19 points for their slow over rates during the 2023 Ashes.

Looking at the previous two editions of the World Test Championship, a PCT (percentage of points won out of points contested) of around 60 to 70 is required to qualify for the final. In the first cycle, New Zealand beat Australia to the second spot in the final with a PCT of 70, marginally better than Australia’s 69.2. On that occasion, the four slow over rate penalty points Australia incurred during the 2020/21 Border-Gavaskar Trophy effectively knocked them out of contention.

In the most recent cycle, India snuck home in second place with a much lower PCT – 58.8; South Africa finished third with a PCT of 55.6.

At the time of writing India’s PCT is a lowly 38.88. Defeat in the Newlands Test would see their PCT fall to 29.17 with 15 Tests to play, 10 of which are against England and Australia. Assuming India clean sweep their home series against Bangladesh and New Zealand, they will have a PCT of 68.51 before the 10 Tests against England and Australia come into consideration.

India will be overwhelming favourites for their series against England, but England are different prospect under the captaincy of Ben Stokes. The venues selected for the five-Test series in early 2024 are also traditionally high-scoring grounds which brings the draw into the equation, even against a side as attacking as England. A cleansweep is certainly possible but it’s far from a given.

Australia in Australia in 2024/25 will be an almighty challenge, too. Australia will be desperate to make amends for their 2018/19 and 2020/21 Border Gavaskar-Trophy defeats, and have enjoyed a spectacular year under Pat Cummins’ captaincy, winning the World Test Championship and World Cup as well as retaining the Ashes away to England.

South Africa, meanwhile, are well placed to a mount a serious challenge for a top two spot. They have a favourable fixture list that sees them host Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and travel to Bangladesh, West Indies and New Zealand.

They are expected to field a massively understrength side for the New Zealand series given its clash with the SA20, but even if that series doesn’t go their way, they are in a good position to make the top two, especially if they win at Newlands. Should they clean sweep their remaining five home Tests and beat West Indies in West Indies and lose all four of their Tests in Bangladesh and New Zealand, they would have a PCT of 66.67 – that would give them more than a fighting chance of reaching the final two.

With Australia well placed to make the final for the second cycle in a row, the Newlands Test may ultimately prove pivotal for both South Africa and India’s respective campaigns. It is too early in the current cycle to totally write off any particular team, but at this point in time, Australia, India and South Africa look like the most likely sides to qualify for the 2025 final.

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