With an eye on a first ever Test series win in South Africa, India will play two Tests against the Proteas from December 26. What will their starting XI look like?

Despite going 1-0 up in 2005/06 and 2021/22, India have never won a Test series in South Africa. In fact, 2010/11 was the only time they returned from the nation without having lost the series.

India are now touring South Africa for two Tests, the frist at Centurion from December 26 and then at Cape Town from January 3. Here are four questions that lie ahead of the tourists.

Who will bat at five?

After a terrific tour of the West Indies, Yashasvi Jaiswal is set to open batting with Rohit Sharma, while Virat Kohli will bat at two-down. Despite a dazzling start, Shubman Gill’s Test career is yet to take off, but India seem keen to continue with him at three.

Given their track record of playing five bowlers, that leaves only one batter’s slot, which will come down to a two-way contest between KL Rahul and Shreyas Iyer, both of whom returned after injury layoffs to have excellent outings at the World Cup.

Following a poor run, Rahul was stripped of vice-captaincy, then dropped during the Australia series at home earlier this year. Jasprit Bumrah is now Rohit’s deputy, which probably means that Rahul is no longer an automatic choice in the Test XI. Rahul did lead lead in the three ODIs in South Africa, but India released Iyer after the first match, enabling him to join the Test squad.

All that probably indicates that Iyer is ahead of Rahul for the No.5 position for India in the Tests in South Africa.

Is there a place for Rahul?

Of course Rahul may still bat one-drop, ahead of Gill. It may be a reasonable choice, for Rahul is one of only two Indian openers (Wasim Jaffer is the other) to have scored a hundred in South Africa.

However, Ishan Kishan’s withdrawal from the tour has opened a new slot with the gloves. During the World Cup, Rahul demonstrated that his glovework has improved significantly, but keeping wicket in longer formats is a different challenge altogether. In his career, Rahul has started a first-class match only once as a designated wicketkeeper.

He will compete with KS Bharat, whom India drafted in for Kishan. Bharat was sound behind the stumps in his five Test matches, some of which were played on difficult pitches. He was dropped, presumably for his batting (129 runs at 18.42, albeit against a top attack on surfaces far from easy), but as India A captain, he is still in the reckoning.

Whether India back the in-form Rahul’s batting over Bharat’s tried-and-tested wicketkeeping remains to be seen.

Ashwin or Shardul?

Reduced to a group of greenhorns and net bowlers, India took a major decision at Brisbane 2020/21 by going in with four fast bowlers and, of spinners, the best batters. That meant leaving out Kuldeep Yadav in favour of Washington Sundar.

They have largely stuck to that template since, even after the big guns returned. Ravindra Jadeja has as good as owned the lone spinner’s spot outside Asia as India back four fast bowlers.

However, as India found out at the World Test Championship final, Bumrah, Mohammed Shami, and Mohammed Siraj are superior to the others by some distance in ‘SENA’ conditions. If one of them is ruled out – Shami, in this case – the attack can look thin.

All that makes a case for R Ashwin alongside Jadeja. While Ashwin’s 70 wickets in ‘SENA’ nations form only a tiny part of his career haul, he has 24 wickets in the same countries at 30.34 apiece since spending the summer of 2017 with Worcestershire.

It will be a difficult choice, for two years ago, Thakur claimed 7-61 at Johannesburg, still the best figures by an Indian in South Africa. It will perhaps come down to the conditions.

Mukesh or Prasidh?

With 151 wickets from 40 first-class matches at 21.62, Mukesh Kumar is the more experienced of the two contenders for the third fast bowler’s slot. Prasidh Krishna’s 54 wickets have come at only 17.29 apiece, but he has played only 12 games, including two between the lockdown and the South Africa tour.

Picked for India A, he claimed 5-43 against South Africa A including a hat-trick at Potchefstroom a fortnight before the first Test match. However, that is not the reason he will have his nose ahead of Mukesh.

After India lost 1-2 in 2017/18, Mike Haysman demonstrated how the extra height of the South African fast bowlers had come to their advantage. After India lost 1-2 again, this time in 2021/22, head coach Rahul Dravid admitted: “On up-and-down wickets sometimes just having that extra height might tend to make a little bit of a difference … They have that natural height advantage. We are bowlers who tend to pitch the ball up a little bit more, we look for swing, we kiss the surface a little bit more.”

That, combined with the five wickets for India A, puts the 188cm Prasidh, the tallest of the Indian fast bowlers in the squad, at an advantage. Additionally, if India indeed back Thakur, they are unlikely to pick Mukesh, for that would make it two seamers well short of fast.