Nathan Lyon took his 500^th Test wicket last week. How many more will he take before he calls it a day?

It is late in the evening on the fourth day of the Australian summer’s first Test, and Nathan Lyon, with 499 wickets to his name, has just rapped Faheem Ashraf on the pads in typically Lyon fashion — a delivery that spins in a touch after pitching at a good length in line with the middle stump. Every Australian player goes up in unison to appeal. Umpire Richard Illingworth remains unmoved. Unsurprisingly, Australia have reviewed. 

Lyon, his teammates and the almost 10,000 spectators in attendance at the Optus stadium in Perth wait for DRS with bated breath. The tension is palpable as ball-tracking commences. Pitching, in line. Impact, in line. Wickets, hitting. 

There is a roar from the crowd, and the Australian players mob Lyon, who has his arms aloft. He has just become the eighth player and third Australian ever in almost 150 years of Test match history to take 500 wickets. 

Twelve years after he dismissed legendary batter Kumar Sangakkara with his first international delivery, the 36-year-old off-spinner from New South Wales has come to become one of Australia’s most decorated and consistent red-ball bowlers with a career that has seen 23 five-wicket-hauls, four ten-wicket hauls, three Ashes victories and two retentions a World Test Championship victory, and now, also 500 wickets. 

Lyon has achieved everything anyone could ever from an international career and more, but he’s not done yet. 

In an interview with Australia’s Sports Entertainment Network in August, Lyon spoke about the calf injury he sustained during the Lord’s Test in the 2023 Ashes series and his desire to win the Ashes outright in England before hanging up his shoes.  

He said: “I feel like having this injury, coming home and watching the guys play the three Test matches has really driven me to get back there and make sure I’m back playing cricket.

“My hunger for the game has probably gone to a new level, this has allowed me to have a little bit more time off during my rehab, sit back, reflect and reset some goals and find a really decent purpose for me. I’m definitely not writing off going back to England for the Ashes… the finish line for me hasn’t even popped up in my eyesight yet, I’ve still got a lot of cricket left in me in my eyes and a lot to offer the Renegades, New South Wales cricket but also Australia.”

With Lyon having become just the second Australian spinner to take 500 wickets and displaying no indication of retiring anytime soon, how much more could Australia’s finest off-spinner achieve?  

Could Lyon surpass Shane Warne’s 708 Test wickets?  

According to ICC’s FTP calendar, Australia are scheduled to play 34 games, including the two remaining games in their ongoing series against Pakistan, before the 2027 Ashes in England commences. Provided that all of these matches take place and that Lyon plays in every single one of them, including in the Ashes, he will have 39 Tests to take an additional 208 wickets, to go past Warne’s 708. 

As far as playing every single one of these games goes, the idea does not seem improbable. With Lyon having an impeccable injury record — he played 100 Test matches in a row before sustaining an injury against England — coupled with Australia’s lack of elite replacements, the 36-year-old, who is currently the leading Test match wicket-taker in 2023 with 43 dismissals, seems set to continue as Australia’s premier spinner until 2027. 

Even so, the chances of Lyon taking an additional 208 wickets are miniscule. He would need to take more than five wickets per game on average — 5.33 to be exact — to do so. 

Thus far, Lyon has taken his 501 wickets in 123 games at 4.07 wickets per game, a rate far lower than what he needs to surpass Warne. If Lyon maintains the same record, he is set to take roughly 160 wickets in 39 more games, bringing his career tally to around the 660 mark — a ways below Warne’s 708.

Even though Lyon has been in the form of his life — since the start of 2021, he has taken 107 wickets in 25 games, at 4.28 wickets a game — it seems unlikely that he will surpass Warne, especially as Australia are only set to play nine of these 39 matches on turning pitches, two in the West Indies, two in Sri Lanka and five in India. 

What other records can Lyon break? 

Lyon currently has the third-most Test scalps for an Australian and seems all set to go past the legendary Glenn McGrath, who retired with 563 dismissals. Taking 208 additional wickets will be a task too arduous for even the exceptional Lyon to achieve, but another 63 seems inevitable; a question of when and not if. 

Similarly, if Lyon plays till 2027, he will also have the opportunity to go past Anil Kumble to become the third-highest wicket-taking spinner in Test history and fourth-highest among all bowlers. If Lyon takes another 119 wickets to surpass Kumble’s 619, he will bow out behind only James Anderson, Shane Warne and Muttiah Muralitharan for most wickets taken, depending on how many more wickets Ravi Ashwin takes — esteemed company to be in. 

Other records that Lyon could stake a claim to are the most balls bowled in a Test career, where he currently stands sixth, showing his immense longevity and determination, and the most dismissals caught in a Test career, where he currently stands fourth — 59.28 per cent of all his wickets have been caught. 92 more would take him top of this list, ahead of Muralitharan, and 49 more would take him second. 

A befitting end to an astonishing career

Lyon could retire tomorrow and still go down an Aussie great for authoritatively and almost single-handedly carrying their Test match spin bowling for the last 12 years — but he seems set to do more before he calls it a day. 

He is determined to continue representing Australia for years to come and finish his career with an away Ashes victory in England in 2027, a series where he could transcend Kumble and become the fourth-highest wicket-taker in a century-and-a-half of Test match cricket. Could there really be a better swan song than that for one of modern cricket’s greats?

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